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dimanche 28 avril 2013

Do you know the emotional oracle effect ?

 

"Will it rain tomorrow? Who will win American Idol? How high will the Dow Jones be next week? Who will be our next president?"


A recent american research from Pham, Lee & Stephen shows some surprising results. If you have some basic knowledge in a field, plus a high confidence in your own feelings, you will be able to predict better than others in this area.


Abstract

"Eight studies reveal an intriguing phenomenon: individuals who have higher trust in their feelings can predict the outcomes of future events better than individuals with lower trust in their feelings. This emotional oracle effect was found across a variety of prediction domains, including (a) the 2008 US Democratic presidential nomination, (b) movie box-office success, (c ) the winner of American Idol, (d) the stock market, (e) college football, and even (f ) the weather. (see table below)


Why and how it works ?

"It is mostly high trust in feelings that improves prediction accuracy rather than low trust in feelings that impairs it. However, the effect occurs only among individuals who possess sufficient background knowledge about the prediction domain, and it dissipates when the prediction criterion becomes inherently unpredictable. The authors hypothesize that the effect arises because trusting one’s feelings encourages access to a “privileged window” into the vast amount of predictive information that people learn, often unconsciously, about their environments."

Michel Tuan Pham, Leonard Lee, and Andrew T. Stephen (2012), "Feeling the Future: The Emotional Oracle Effect", Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 461-477.

For more results and full pdf http://www.columbia.edu/~tdp4/Pham-Lee-Stephen-JCR2012.pdf

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